I never understood why they changed the phrase above to "And the Oscar goes to ..." I mean, c'mon. It's just like the Olympics. If you don't get the gold, you're the loser. It's that simple. And those who don't walk away with the gold statuette tonight are the losers .... in Hollywood's eyes, that is. Those of us who know better realize that the Academy Awards have their own political agendas, and the best in their categories don't necessarily win, or even get nominated, at times. But, for what it's worth, I always tune in. I can't help myself. I love all the red carpet hoopla, I love tuning in to see which actress is the most gorgeously attired, and who looks like hell. I love all the couture name-dropping, the jewels, the banalities swapped with Joan Rivers (she gets harder to stomach each year, but she's a necessary evil because unfortunately she gets first dibs on the creme de la creme and Hollywood's darlings of the moment).
I have to confess I have not seen a lot of films this year. It's been a very scanty year for me film-wise, actually. The only Best Picture nominee I have seen this year was "Brokeback Mountain" (more below). So I can't really comment on who deserves all the accolades, other than to give educated guesses and just go with personal biases.
As I mentioned, I saw "Brokeback". It was good. I went to see it primarily because of the hype (I wish I were immune), but also because I have such a huge crush on Jake Gyllenhaal (the absolute cutest young actor I have ever seen, and also very talented -- Joaquin Phoenix would come in second) and I have seen other films by Ang Lee, the director, and admired his visual style and the scope of his films. I've heard all the gay cowboy jokes and I suppose they were inevitable. But the movie was a very touching love story, plain and simple. Unrequited love. These "macho men" meet each other, live alone together in an isolated environment, intimacy develops, they fall in love, have a sexual liaison, and go their separate ways. They both marry and have families, but they never stop loving each other and occasionally get together for some quality time. Heath Ledger is really the centre of the whole movie and he was amazing. He definitely deserved a nomination. He played the more repressed of the two men, the one who loved this other man but despised himself and was too afraid of how he would be castigated by society if he went on his true path. So his life is always a mere whisper of what it could be. It's a very sad, tragic story. But I don't think either Heath or Jake will win the coveted statuette tonight.
The absolute lock for Best Actor has to be Philip Seymour Hoffman, who, by all accounts (and I don't doubt it), turned in an absolutely transcendent performance playing Truman Capote in "Capote". I've been a fan of Hoffman's for quite some time, since I saw him in Todd Solondz's "Happiness" (rent it, it's awesome!). Unfortunately, I have not seen the film, but I've talked to people who have, and they have all said he is absolutely amazing.
It's too bad David Strathairn got nominated this year in the Actor category because there is no way in hell he will win, and that's too bad. I've always admired him. He's one of the hardest-working, method actors around, quietly, oh so capably doing his job, until he finally got seriously noticed this year. Maybe some other time.
The one totally gratuitous, in my opinion, totally politically motivated nominee this year has to be "Crash". Unfortunately, I did see this movie, I rented it awhile ago. It has to be one of the most overrated films I have ever seen. The only good thing I have to say about it is that Matt Dillon did put in a really good performance playing a racist cop. Other than that, totally cliche, totally hackneyed, in my opinion.
I hope Amy Adams wins Best Supporting Actress for "June Bug". I also rented that recently and her performance blew me away. The film itself wasn't that great (it was okay), but she just totally dominated the movie playing a young pregnant girl in a Southern family, very sweet and naive, who is awestruck by a sophisticated art dealer who comes to visit. She totally inhabited that role and she fully deserves to win. But she won't, because it will go to Rachel Weisz for "The Constant Gardener". I saw this too, and found the movie quite boring, but again, this actress dominated the whole movie and inhabited her role. She was very good, and because she's English and considered a more "serious" actress, she will probably win.
Anyway, enough of my pontifications. Enjoy the festivities and all the grandiosity and pomposity. Here's my list of predictions for the "elite" awards (bolded for who WILL win, italicized for who SHOULD win ... in a case where I have no particular opinion, I'll just do some guessing):
BEST PICTURE
Brokeback MountainCapote
Crash
Good Night, And Good Luck
Munich
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CapoteTerrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, And Good Luck
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The LineBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney - SyrianaMatt Dillon - CrashPaul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - JunebugCatherine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant GardenerMichelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee - Brokeback MountainBennett Miller - Capote
Paul Haggis - Crash
George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck
Steven Spielberg - Munich